The first strike of the Russian Federation on Ukraine with an intercontinental ballistic missile scared Ukraine’s Western partners even a day before its arrival. UNIAN investigated the goals of this “PR act” of Russia and how achievable they are.
Russia’s statements about another “red line”
Recently, one gets the impression that Russia’s statements about another “red line”, the crossing of which will provoke the Kremlin to use nuclear weapons, have ceased to be perceived not only by Ukraine, but also by its partners – both the USA (at least the transitional structure of their authorities) and part of Europe. So, a series of sharp and nervous statements by Moscow about an “adequate and tangible” response to Kyiv’s limited permission to strike deep into the Russian Federation with Western weapons was followed by a demonstration of Russian capabilities. In the morning of November 21, the Russian Federation struck the city of Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile. On the one hand, you cannot call such a “PR act” rational. First of all, because “the sheep is not worth the trouble” – the cost and scale of the missile, most likely, are not comparable to the damage it (potentially) caused. After all, the “Iskanders”, which are already familiar to Ukraine, could cause similar damage, not to mention the anti-aircraft guns. Secondly, because, taking into account the reaction of the USA (and then some European countries) with the closure of the embassy in Kyiv and the request to its employees not to ignore the air warning signals, Russia had to warn the States about the probable launch of the ICBM. The fact is that since Soviet times, such launches (their tests) have been carried out with a warning to the enemy, so that his anti-missile defense system does not activate automatically and there is no “retaliatory launch”. And hardly Cold War 2.0. happens according to other rules.
Cold War 2.0:
“You don’t need to be an analyst to connect this warning and the fact of the closing of the US embassy in Ukraine. I wonder if the US warned Ukraine about this danger? After all, Ukraine does not have anti-missile systems in its arsenal that could shoot down ICBMs from the Russian Federation,” he notes. Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center for International affairs. On the other hand, if we take into account that the purpose of using the intercontinental ballistic missile was not to cause any greater damage to Ukraine, but to try to intimidate the United States, and especially the Europeans, in this matter Russia acts according to the principle of “all means are good.”
“This is not a signal to Ukraine. After all, strikes by potential carriers of nuclear weapons (even modified missiles that were equipped with an imitation of a nuclear warhead) are regularly carried out by Russia on Ukraine. This is an attempt to reinforce Russian nuclear blackmail in relation to Europe, and to provoke a corresponding reaction from allies in the USA in order to scare In other words, this is a psychological operation, because from a military point of view, such an application (distance and low accuracy) is not nuclear of the combat unit is absolutely inappropriate,” diplomat Valery Chaliy believes.
Military analyst Mykhailo Samus:
shares this opinion: “Russia’s use of an ICBM (or ballistic missile) on the territory of Ukraine is the transition of an inadequate dwarf to a new level of blackmail by the new US administration. Like, if you don’t give up support for Ukraine, the next missile will be with a nuclear warhead.”
According to him, this is the result of many years of Western policy of “concern” without real deterrence of the aggressor.
“Gopnik had to be restrained in 2007 in Munich, in 2008 in Bucharest and Georgia, in 2014 in Crimea and Donbas. And now – “brown lines”, Sullivan and Trump’s “young team”., which trembles at the phrase “Third World War”… But it doesn’t change anything for Ukraine, in fact: either we or the empire,” he notes.
Resources are not unlimited:
One more point – the removal by Western countries of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons by Ukraine at objects on Russian territory will obviously lead to a significant change in the strategic situation not in favor of the Russian Federation. Therefore, Russia has to act in advance. The fact is that the resources of the Russian Federation are not unlimited. Recently, the head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the economy of the aggressor country has exhausted its reserves. And the military potential, which is monitored by monitoring groups, is not too impressive.
For example, Defense Express notes that as of the beginning of this year, Russia has 521 ICBM. However, it took… more than twenty years to accumulate such an arsenal.
Of course, the Russian Federation is actively shifting its economy to military lines. But here too there are miscalculations. For example, according to aviation expert Anatoly Khrapchynskyi, if we recall the last massive shelling of Ukraine, during this attack, to a large extent, Russia used Kh-101 missiles with old Soviet engines from Kh-55 missiles (they were produced by the Ukrainian Motor Sich during Soviet times) .
Not to mention the fact that Russia needs the support of its partners, from China to Iran and North Korea, for its military strengthening.
“There is information that Russia has requested technologies for the production of engines for cruise and ballistic missiles in Iran. This is another proof that the Russians are not capable of performing certain tasks. For example, we can recall the last tests of their Sarmat missile – it exploded back then in launch mine. That is, one of the key problems of the Russian Federation from the point of view of the creation of missiles and airplanes is the production of engines for them,” the expert emphasized.
In any case, now Russia does not have twenty years to accumulate the forces that should be inherent in the “empire” of the level to which Russia aspires. Therefore, according to political scientist Volodymyr Voli, “Putin does not want Russia to be stuck in the war for several more years.”
Nuclear strike and other “trouble”:
Can the Russian Federation, in order to put even more pressure on the USA and Europe, go further – to carry out a demonstrative nuclear strike?
Volodymyr Volya does not rule out that the deranged Russian dictator may decide to do so. However, in order not to anger Comrade Xi (because China’s position on the use of nuclear weapons is unambiguous), it could be a strike on a military facility far from civilians.
“In such a case, China can officially say “yay-yay-yay”, but whether it will introduce sanctions against the Russian Federation is a question. If they do, they will only concern Putin’s entourage,” he notes.
In turn, military expert Ivan Stupak adds that the Russians have already used everything they could in Ukraine, except for nuclear weapons. But, according to him, in order to show the West its “power”, the Russian Federation does not necessarily use nuclear weapons in Ukraine – it can conduct demonstrative nuclear tests somewhere on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.
“They are working on this issue, because according to some media reports, the Russian Federation has prepared a test site on the island of Novaya Zemlya for new nuclear tests,” the expert noted. than “Malyuk” (the bomb that the USA dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, – UNIAN) – photograph it from dozens of different angles, and the whole Internet will be buzzing: “The first nuclear explosion in the 21st century!”. That’s exactly what the Russians can do.
What else Russia can be successful in is hybrid attacks, including information attacks. Ivan Stupak reminds that turning Israelis against Muslims and vice versa, Republicans against Democrats, some Ukrainians against others, is what Russia can and does. Therefore, sabotage, stimulation of mass protests, attacks on the IT infrastructure are a tried-and-tested toolkit of the Russians, which will probably not be idle in the future.
By 24Webs.com
