The Moscow Exchange index ended the week in a moderately positive manner. The forecast for the next week was given to Finance Mail by Alexander Shepelev, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments
Emotions in the market have subsided due to geopolitical conflicts. The DXY dollar index has dropped noticeably in recent days – from an area of 107.5 points to values below 106 points. This gave impetus to commodity prices and, in particular, supported oil prices amid progress in de-escalating the Middle East conflict. In addition, it was possible to extinguish near-panic sentiments in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the decline in the ruble that has occurred is probably not yet fully reflected in stock quotes; a positive revaluation of exporters’ securities may “catch up” with the market at the beginning of next week.
The picture on foreign markets is still mixed – Chinese stock exchanges closed Friday in positive territory, while sentiment in European markets was rather neutral. The first estimate of the eurozone CPI for November showed prices rose 2.3% year-on-year, following a 2% gain in October. However, analysts predicted exactly this value.
The beginning of next week:
At the beginning of next week, the November manufacturing business activity indices (PMI) of China (from Caixin), the eurozone and the United States will be important for overall sentiment. On the Russian market on Monday, Polyus shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting will discuss the approval of dividends for 9 months.
Basically, in the absence of increased external negativity, we expect moderately positive dynamics in the near future. The Moscow Exchange Index is capable of moving above 2600 points and trying to gain a foothold there. Forecast for December 2 – 2520−2620 p
Ministry Of Russian finance Department:
The forecast for the coming week at the ruble to yuan exchange rate is 14-15, at the dollar – 103-108. As noted in the “Financial Stability Review” for the second and third quarters, published by the Central Bank, such a weak ruble is not for long; the situation was provoked by sanctions and the adaptation of companies to new conditions of external payments. The day before, the regulator suspended the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic market as part of mirroring operations Ministry of Finance according to the budget rule. The speculative acceleration of foreign exchange rates has stopped. At the same time, the movement of the exchange rate to more adequate, economically comfortable values will probably not be fast, since pressure from seasonal factors – pre-holiday activation of consumers and increased budget spending – will increase in the coming weeks.
By 24Webs
